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UPDATE: The U.S. economy expanded by 1.5 percent during the second quarter, topping expecations for a 1.4 percent gain, new data out of the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows.
Nonetheless, the government figures continued show that the nation's economy is on uneven footing and losing momentum.
During the first three months of the year, the country's gross domestic product expanded by a revised 2.0 percent, moderately faster than the pace seen today.?
Economists have been highlighting the somewhat stalled pace of growth over the past several months as a series of data points have been lackluster.
"Over the past year the US economy, as weak as it has been, has outperformed its peers," Eric Green of TD Securities said ahead of the report. "Coupled with pervasive risk aversion stemming from Europe, and a Fed that has chosen maturity management over balance sheet expansion, it has led to a 13.5% gain in the USD (DXY) since the last annual revisions to GDP."
Aiding growth was a jump in personal consumption of non durable goods and exports.?
Exports advanced 5.3 percent in the second quarter, accelerating from the 4.4 percent gain at the start of 2012.
Non durable goods and services jumped 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Sales of durable goods declined 1.0 percent during the period.
Government spending continued to decline, with total expenditures off 0.4 percent. That's a deceleration from the 4.2 percent fall recorded in the first quarter.?
Personal consumption improved 1.5 percent during the period, a 90 basis point drop from three months earlier.
In current-dollar terms, the BEA said the nation's economy expanded 3.1 percent, or $117.6 billion, to $15.595 trillion.?
?
Below, the full release.
---------------------------
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2012,
(that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page
3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
August 29, 2012.
BOX._____
The estimates released today reflect the regular annual revision of the national income and product
accounts (NIPAs), beginning with the estimates for the first quarter of 2009. Annual revisions, which
are usually released in July, incorporate source data that are more complete, more detailed, and
otherwise more reliable than those previously available. This release includes the revised quarterly
estimates of GDP, corporate profits, and personal income and provides an overview of the effects of the
revision.
The August 2012 Survey of Current Business will contain NIPA tables and an article describing
the revisions. These NIPA tables will be available on BEA?s Web site at www.bea.gov by August 3,
2012.
_________
FOOTNOTE.______
Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA?s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
________________
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory
investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from state
and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE, an
acceleration in imports, and decelerations in residential fixed investment and in nonresidential fixed
investment that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment, a smaller decrease in
federal government spending, and an acceleration in exports.
Motor vehicle output added 0.13 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after
adding 0.72 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.07
percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.02 percentage point to the
first-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent in the first.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in
the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Durable goods decreased 1.0 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 11.5 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6
percent. Services increased 1.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with
an increase of 7.5 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 0.9 percent, compared with an
increase of 12.9 percent. Equipment and software increased 7.2 percent, compared with an increase of
5.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 9.7 percent, compared with an increase of 20.5
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of 4.4 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 6.0 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.1 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.4 percent
in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 4.2 percent in the first. National defense decreased
0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 7.1 percent. Nondefense decreased 0.3 percent, in contrast to
an increase of 1.8 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 2.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.2.
The change in real private inventories added 0.32 percentage point to the second-quarter change
in real GDP after subtracting 0.39 percentage point from the first-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $66.3 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $56.9 billion in the first
quarter and $70.5 billion in the fourth.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.2
percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 1.8 percent in the second quarter, the same increase as in the first quarter.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $140.5 billion (4.3 percent) in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $199.9 billion (6.3 percent) in the first.
Personal current taxes increased $24.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase
of $30.0 billion in the first.
Disposable personal income increased $115.6 billion (4.0 percent) in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $169.9 billion (6.0 percent) in the first. Real disposable personal income
increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.4 percent.
Personal outlays increased $59.9 billion (2.1 percent) in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $143.1 billion (5.2 percent) in the first. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $475.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with $419.5 billion in the first.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.0 percent in
the second quarter, compared with 3.6 percent in the first. For a comparison of personal saving in
BEA?s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board?s flow
of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.1 percent, or $117.6 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $15,595.9 billion. In the first quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 4.2 percent, or $157.3 billion.
BOX._________
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."
_____________
?
Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
The revised estimates, which begin with 2009, reflect the results of the annual revision of the
national income and product accounts (NIPAs). These revisions, usually made each July, incorporate
newly available and more comprehensive source data, as well as improved estimation methodologies. In
this annual revision, the notable revisions primarily reflect the incorporation of newly available and
revised source data. For example, the revised estimates of profits reflect newly available Internal
Revenue Service tabulations of tax returns for corporations for 2010 and revised tabulations for 2009.
Because of the additional data shown, tables 3, 11, and 12 are each divided into two separate
tables -- 3A and 3B, 11A and 11B, and 12A and 12B. There are also a number of special tables that
compare the revised and previously published estimates for selected periods: table 1A shows the
percent change in real GDP and related measures; table 1B shows revisions to current-dollar GDP, to
national income, and to the disposition of personal income; table 2A shows contributions to the percent
change in real GDP; table 4A shows the percent change in the chain-type price indexes for GDP and
related measures; and table 12C shows revisions to corporate profits by industry.
With the release of the annual revision, statistics for selected NIPA tables will be available on
BEA?s Web site (www.bea.gov). Shortly after the GDP release, BEA will post a table on its Web site
showing the sources of major current-dollar revisions to the annual estimates for 2009?2011 for each
component of GDP, national income, and personal income. The August 2012 Survey of Current
Business will contain NIPA tables and an article describing the revisions. The August 2012 issue will
also contain an analysis of the "advance" GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2012 ("GDP and the
Economy").
This section of the release discusses the highlights of annual revision, including the newly
incorporated source data and changes in methodology and presentation.
Summary of revisions
For this annual revision, the revisions are limited to the period from 2009 to the first quarter of
2012.
* For 2008?2011, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent; in the previously
published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent. From the
fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2012, real GDP increased at an average annual rate
of 1.5 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDP had increased 1.4 percent.
* The percent change in real GDP was revised up 0.4 percentage point for 2009, was revised down
0.6 percentage point for 2010, and was revised up 0.1 percentage point for 2011.
* The revisions to the annual estimates for 2009?2011 reflect partly offsetting revisions to the
quarters within the year. For example, for 2009, the annual rate of change in GDP was revised
up 1.4 percentage points for the first quarter, was revised up 0.4 percentage point for the second
quarter, and was revised up 0.2 percentage point for the fourth quarter, while the growth rate for
the third quarter was revised down 0.3 percentage point. For 2010, the annual rate of change in
GDP was revised down 1.6 percentage points for both the first and second quarters, while the
growth rates for the third and fourth quarters were each revised up 0.1 percentage point. For
2011, the annual rate of change in GDP was revised up 1.2 percentage points for the second
quarter and was revised up 1.1 percentage points for the fourth quarter, while the growth rates for
the first and third quarters were revised down 0.3 percentage point and 0.5 percentage point,
respectively.
* For the 13 quarters from the first quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2012, the average revision
(without regard to sign) was 0.7 percentage point. The revisions did not change the direction of
change in real GDP (increase or decrease) for any quarter.
* For 2008?2011, the average annual rate of growth of real disposable personal income was
revised down 0.1 percentage point, from 0.2 percent to 0.1 percent.
* From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2012, the average annual rate of increase in
the price index for gross domestic purchases was 1.6 percent, the same rate of increase as in the
previously published estimates. The average annual rate of increase in the price index for
personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was 1.8 percent; in the previously published
estimates, the price index for PCE had increased 1.9 percent. The average annual rate of
increase in the "core" PCE price index (which excludes food and energy) was 1.5 percent; in the
previously published estimates, the "core" PCE price index had increased 1.6 percent.
* The percent change in real gross domestic income (GDI) was revised up 0.1 percentage point for
2009, was revised down 0.5 percentage point for 2010, and was revised down 0.2 percentage
point for 2011.
* National income was revised down for all 3 years: 0.1 percent for 2009, 0.2 percent for 2010,
and 0.5 percent for 2011.
* Corporate profits was revised down for all 3 years: 1.4 percent for 2009, 5.4 percent for 2010,
and 6.0 percent for 2011.
Revisions to the 2009-2011 estimates
The percent change from the preceding year in real GDP was revised up from a decrease of 3.5
percent to a decrease of 3.1 percent for 2009, was revised down from an increase of 3.0 percent to an
increase of 2.4 percent for 2010, and was revised up from an increase of 1.7 percent to an increase of 1.8
percent for 2011.
For 2009, the largest contributors to the revision to the change in real GDP were upward
revisions to state and local government spending and to inventory investment. For 2010, the largest
contributors to the revision were downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, to PCE, and to
inventory investment. For 2011, the largest contributors to the revision were upward revisions to PCE
and to inventory investment; these revisions were partly offset by downward revisions to state and local
government spending, to federal government spending, and to nonresidential fixed investment.
The percent change from fourth quarter to fourth quarter in real GDP was revised up from a
decrease of 0.5 percent to a decrease of 0.1 percent during 2009, was revised down from an increase of
3.1 percent to an increase of 2.4 percent during 2010, and was revised up from an increase of 1.6 percent
to an increase of 2.0 percent during 2011.
For the period of contraction from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, real
GDP decreased at an average annual rate of 3.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, it had
decreased 3.5 percent. The cumulative decrease in real GDP (not at an annual rate) was 4.7 percent; in
the previously published estimates, the cumulative decrease was 5.1 percent.
For the period of expansion from the second quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2012, real
GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.3 percent; in the previously published estimates, it had
increased 2.4 percent.
The percent change from the preceding year in real gross domestic income (GDI) was revised up
from a decrease of 4.0 percent to a decrease of 3.9 percent for 2009, was revised down from an increase
of 3.6 percent to an increase of 3.1 percent for 2010, and was revised down from an increase of 2.0
percent to an increase of 1.8 percent for 2011.
The percent change from the preceding year in the price index for gross domestic purchases was
revised down from a decrease of 0.1 percent to a decrease of 0.2 percent for 2009, was revised up from
an increase of 1.5 percent to an increase of 1.6 percent for 2010, and was unrevised at 2.5 percent for
2011. For the corresponding quarters, the largest downward revision was 0.6 percentage point for the
first quarter of 2011; the largest upward revision was 0.4 percentage point (for both the third and fourth
quarters of 2010).
Current-dollar GDP was revised up $34.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2009; was revised down
$27.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2010; and was revised down $18.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2011.
The percent change from the preceding year was revised up from a decrease of 2.5 percent to a decrease
of 2.2 percent for 2009, was revised down from an increase of 4.2 percent to an increase of 3.8 percent
for 2010, and was revised up from an increase of 3.9 percent to an increase of 4.0 percent for 2011.
Current-dollar gross national product (GNP) (GDP plus net receipts of income from the rest of the
world) was revised up $26.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2009; was revised down $7.7 billion, or 0.1
percent, for 2010; and was revised down $12.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2011. Net receipts of income
from the rest of the world was revised down $8.8 billion for 2009, was revised up $19.9 billion for 2010,
and was revised up $6.4 billion for 2011. The revisions to net receipts of income -- which affect GNP,
national income, corporate profits, net interest and miscellaneous payments, and personal income
receipts on assets -- resulted from the revisions to BEA's international transactions accounts (ITAs) that
were released in June. (An article describing the revisions to the ITAs was published in the July 2012
issue of the Survey of Current Business.)
National income was revised down for all 3 years: $15.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2009; $28.7
billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2010; and $62.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2011. For 2009, downward
revisions to corporate profits, to net interest, and to rental income of persons were partly offset by an
upward revision to nonfarm proprietors? income. For 2010, a downward revision to corporate profits
was partly offset by an upward revision to nonfarm proprietors? income. For 2011, a downward revision
to corporate profits was partly offset by upward revisions to nonfarm proprietors? income and to
supplements to wages and salaries.
Corporate profits from current production -- profits before tax with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments -- was revised down for all 3 years: $19.7 billion, or 1.4 percent, for
2009; $97.7 billion, or 5.4 percent, for 2010; and $115.8 billion, or 6.0 percent, for 2011. For 2009,
downward revisions to profits of domestic financial corporations and to profits from the rest of the world
were partly offset by an upward revision to profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations. For 2010 and
2011, downward revisions to profits of domestic financial and nonfinancial corporations were partly
offset by an upward revision to profits from the rest of the world.
Profits before tax was revised down for all 3 years: $15.2 billion for 2009, $3.2 billion for 2010,
and $42.2 billion for 2011. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from
current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments
convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost
basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital
consumption adjustment was revised down for all 3 years: $7.0 billion for 2009, $94.9 billion for 2010,
and $71.2 billion for 2011. The inventory valuation adjustment was revised up $2.6 billion for 2009,
was revised up $0.4 billion for 2010, and was revised down $2.5 billion for 2011.
Personal income was revised down for all 3 years: $63.2 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2009; $51.6
billion, or 0.4 percent, for 2010; and $43.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2011. For 2009, downward
revisions to personal dividend income, to rental income of persons, and to personal interest income were
partly offset by an upward revision to nonfarm proprietors? income. For 2010, a downward revision to
personal dividend income was partly offset by upward revisions to nonfarm proprietors? income and to
personal interest income. For 2011, downward revisions to personal dividend income, to government
social benefits to persons, and to farm proprietors? income were partly offset by upward revisions to
nonfarm proprietors? income, to supplements to wages and salaries, and to personal interest income.
Disposable personal income (DPI) (personal income less personal current taxes) was revised
down for all 3 years: $66.4 billion, or 0.6 percent, for 2009; $52.6 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2010; and
$44.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, for 2011. Personal current taxes was revised up for all 3 years: $3.2 billion
for 2009, $0.9 billion for 2010, and $0.3 billion for 2011. The percent change from the preceding year
in real DPI was revised down from a decrease of 2.3 percent to a decrease of 2.8 percent for 2009, was
unrevised at 1.8 percent for 2010, and was revised up from an increase of 1.2 percent to an increase of
1.3 percent for 2011.
Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments --
was revised down $22.0 billion for 2009, was revised down $26.5 billion for 2010, and was revised up
$4.8 billion for 2011. For 2009 and 2010, downward revisions to PCE accounted for most of the
revisions to personal outlays. For 2011, upward revisions to personal interest payments and to PCE
were partly offset by a downward revision to personal current transfer payments to government. The
personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of DPI) was revised down for all 3 years: from 5.1
percent to 4.7 percent for 2009, from 5.3 percent to 5.1 percent for 2010, and from 4.6 percent to 4.2
percent for 2011.
The statistical discrepancy is current-dollar GDP less current-dollar gross domestic income
(GDI). It arises because most components of GDP and of GDI are estimated independently. GDP
measures final expenditures -- the sum of consumer spending, private investment, net exports, and
government spending. GDI measures the incomes earned in the production of GDP. In concept, GDP is
equal to GDI. In practice, they differ because they are estimated using different source data and
different methods.
As a result of the annual revision, the statistical discrepancy as a percentage of GDP was revised
up for all 3 years: from 0.6 percent to 0.8 percent for 2009, from less than 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent for
2010, and from a negative 0.2 percent to a positive 0.2 percent for 2011. For 2009, the revision to the
discrepancy reflected an upward revision to GDP and a downward revision to GDI. For 2010 and 2011,
the revisions to the discrepancy reflected downward revisions to GDI that were larger than the
downward revisions to GDP.
New source data
The annual revision incorporated data from the following major federal statistical sources:
Census Bureau annual survey of manufactures for 2009 (revised) and 2010 (preliminary); Census
Bureau annual surveys of merchant wholesale trade and of retail trade for 2009 (revised) and for 2010
(preliminary); Census Bureau revised monthly indicators of manufactures, of merchant wholesale trade,
and of retail trade for 2009?2011; Census Bureau annual surveys of services for 2009 (revised), 2010
(revised), and 2011 (preliminary), and of state and local government finances for fiscal years 2008
(revised), 2009 (revised), and 2010 (preliminary); Census Bureau monthly survey of construction
spending (value put in place) for 2009?2011 (revised); Census Bureau quarterly services survey for
2009?2011 (revised); Census Bureau current population survey/housing vacancy survey for 2011;
federal government budget data for fiscal years 2011 and 2012; Internal Revenue Service tabulations of
tax returns for corporations for 2009 (revised) and 2010 (preliminary) and for sole proprietorships and
partnerships for 2010; Bureau of Labor Statistics quarterly census of employment and wages for 2009?
2011 (revised); Department of Agriculture farm statistics for 2009?2011 (revised); and BEA's ITAs for
2009?2011 (revised).
Changes in methodology and presentation
The annual revision also incorporated improvements to estimating methodologies, including the
following:
* Beginning with the estimates for 2010, data from the Census Bureau?s expanded service annual
survey (SAS) are incorporated into the annual estimates of PCE categories for ground
transportation for intercity buses, taxicabs, private urban transit systems, school bus
transportation, and "other" road transportation. Newly available SAS data are also incorporated
into the PCE estimates of water transportation; both ground transportation and water
transportation are included in the PCE category public transportation. In addition, newly
available SAS data are incorporated into the PCE estimates of commercial and vocational
schools and into the PCE estimates of water supply and sanitation services. Similarly, beginning
with the estimates for the first quarter of 2011, data from the Census Bureau?s expanded
quarterly services survey (QSS) are incorporated into the quarterly estimates of most of these
same PCE categories. As a result, the percentage of quarterly PCE services that are based on the
QSS has increased to 42 percent.
* Beginning with the estimates for 2010, retail motor vehicle inventory investment is derived using
a weighted average of private industry data on motor vehicle unit inventories and of inventory
data from the Census Bureau?s retail trade surveys. This methodology is used for both the
annual inventory investment estimates and the current quarterly extrapolations of inventory
investment. Prior to this methodology change, estimates of annual inventory investment were
based solely on retail trade inventory data from the Census Bureau, and the current quarterly
extrapolations were based solely on the unit inventory data. This new approach takes into
account differences in the scope and coverage of these two data sources and makes the annual
and current quarterly methodologies more consistent and should result in smaller revisions
during annual revisions.
* Beginning with the estimates for the second quarter of 2012, data for the "preliminary"
composite refiner acquisition cost of crude oil from the Energy Information Administration are
used in place of the producer price index for crude petroleum as the indicator for the estimates of
the refiner crude acquisition cost, which is used in the estimation of a number of important series
of private inventory investment and their corresponding inventory valuation adjustments.
* Beginning with the estimates for the first quarter of 2009, revised seasonally adjusted foreign
trade prices are incorporated on a "best-level" basis into BEA?s chained-dollar estimates of
exports and imports. The revised prices reflect BEA?s work with the Census Bureau?s Foreign
Trade Division to develop more consistent measures of chained-dollar exports and imports.
* A new group of tables is introduced on BEA?s Web site to show GDP, GDI, and other major
NIPA aggregates (including GNP and various command-basis measures) side-by-side. Most of
the measures in these tables are already available in other NIPA tables. The new tables are
intended to facilitate comparison of these major aggregates.
?
* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- August 29, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2012 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2012 (Preliminary Estimate)
?
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"? estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.2 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA?s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of
compared regard to sign revisions without
regard to sign
____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.2 0.6 0.4
Advance to third..................... .2 .7 .4
Second to third...................... .0 .3 .2
Advance to latest.................... .3 1.2 1.0
________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________
Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .6 .5
Second to third...................... .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest.................... .2 1.3 1.0
NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2008.
-------------------------
ORIGINAL:
Here we go.
The major data point of the month is just minutes away: U.S. Second Quarter GDP.
Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast the economy expanded by 1.4 percent in the second quarter, below the 1.9 percent pace recorded in the first three months of the year.
Personal consumption is also expected to decelerate, increasing 1.3 percent.
This report may be muddied as the Bureau of Economic Analysis revises at least three years of data.?
Earlier this week,?Bank of America?Economist Michelle Meyer?told Bloomberg TV?that estimates from 2009 and 2010 "would likely still be lower, implying an even larger output gap, and, hence more slack in the economy."
The announcement is scheduled for 8:30 a.m.
Here's what to look for in the report >
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/us-q2-gdp-2012-7
giuliana and bill bill rancic nflx jennifer hudson chicago blackhawks dick clark elie wiesel
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Public release date: 24-Jul-2012
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